first cut predictoor df and guide

data-farming/predictoordf-guide.md

@@ -5,6 +5,19 @@ description: >-
 
 # Guide to Predictoor DF
 
-In Predictoor DF, you run prediction bots to earn continuously. Starts on DF62.
+In Predictoor DF (and Predictoor proper), you run prediction bots to earn continuously.
+
+## How to be eligible for Predictoor DF
+
+**Running a predictoor bot will automatically make you eligible for Predictoor DF rewards.**
+
+Therefore, you simply need to become a predictoor! See [Predictoor docs](../predictoor/README.md) or go directly to the [predictoor quickstart README](https://github.com/oceanprotocol/pdr-backend)
+
+## How to claim Predictoor DF Rewards
+
+Claiming comes in two parts: OCEAN and ROSE.
+
+1. For OCEAN rewards: recall that these act as more sales coming to you (as a predictoor). So you claim your OCEAN from sales in the usual way, by running the [OCEAN payout script](https://github.com/oceanprotocol/pdr-backend/blob/main/READMEs/payout.md).
+
+2. For ROSE rewards: run the ROSE payout script, linked from [here](https://github.com/oceanprotocol/pdr-backend/blob/main/READMEs/predictoor.md).
 
-(Note: this doc will get fleshed out soon.)

data-farming/predictoordf.md

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 ---
 description: >-
   Run prediction bots to earn continuously.
+cover: ../.gitbook/assets/data-farming/predictoordf_main.png
+coverY: 0
 ---
 
 # Predictoor Data Farming
 
+<figure><img src="../.gitbook/assets/data-farming/predictoordf_main.png" alt=""></figure>
 
 **This page** is about Predictoor DF, and [this page](predictoordf-guide.md) is a guide.
 
 # About Predictoor DF
 
-In Predictoor DF, you run prediction bots to earn continuously. Starts on DF62.
+A “predictoor” runs AI-powered prediction bots in the [Predictoor](../predictoor/README.md) ecosystem. They earn $ from sales of prediction feeds; higher accuracy and higher stake mean higher $.
+
+**Predictoor DF** is a substream of Active DF that amplifies predictoors’ earnings, via extra sales to Ocean Predictoor data feeds. Predictoor DF has 37K OCEAN weekly rewards (ongoing) and 100K ROSE rewards (first 4 weeks).
+
+The higher baseline sales makes Volume DF and Passive more attractive.
+
+## Introduction
+
+**[Ocean Predictoor](../predictoor/README.md)** data feeds predict whether BTC, ETH etc will rise or fall 5min or 1h into the future. These feeds are crowdsourced by “predictoors”: people running AI-powered prediction bots.
+
+**[Data Farming (DF)](../data-farming/README.md)** is Ocean’s incentive program, that rewards OCEAN to people who lock OCEAN or do active DF activities.
+
+Predictoor Data Farming is a substream of Active DF. It amplifies existing predictoors’ earnings based on their accuracy and stake.
+
+## Predictoor DF Timing
+
+Predictoor DF starts counting on Nov 9, 2023, at the beginning of Data Farming Round 62 (DF62). It runs indefinitely.
+
+## Predictoor DF Reward Amounts
+
+Predictoor DF has two components: [OCEAN](https://oceanprotocol.com/about-us/ocean-token) rewards and [Oasis ROSE](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/oasis-network) rewards.
+
+### OCEAN Rewards
+
+OCEAN payouts are 37,000 OCEAN/week, ongoing.
+- A special “DF buyer” bot purchases Predictoor feeds. It starts operating on Nov 9. Every day, it spends 1/7 of the weekly Predictoor OCEAN budget for another 24h subscription. It spends an equal amount per feed. (Currently there are 20 feeds: 10 x 5min, 10 x 1h.)
+- The OCEAN comes from the Ocean DF budget, as part of the 75,000 OCEAN/week for Active DF. The Volume DF budget has been adjusted to 37,000 OCEAN/week, and Challenge DF to 1,000 OCEAN/week. Here are details.
+
+### ROSE Rewards
+
+ROSE payouts of 100,000 ROSE/week for the first 4 weeks of Predictoor DF.
+- Payout is at the end of the DF round. Therefore there will be payouts at the end of DF62, DF63, DF64, and DF65.
+- Payout for a given predictoor is pro-rata to the net earnings of that predictoor over that DF round, specifically (total sales $ to the predictoor) minus (predictoor stake slashed due to being wrong).
+- The ROSE comes from a generous contribution of[ Oasis Protocol Foundation](https://oasisprotocol.org/) 👪🙏.
 
 
-(Note: this doc will get fleshed out soon.)
+## How to Earn $ Via Predictoor DF
+
+**Running a predictoor bot will automatically make you eligible for Predictoor DF rewards.**
+
+The [Predictoor DF user guide](predictoordf-guide.md) tells how to get started as a predictoor, and how to claim rewards.
+
+## How to Earn More $ Via Passive DF & Volume DF
+
+Predictoor DF makes [Active DF](../data-farming/activedf.md) more attractive, and in turn [Passive DF](../data-farming/passivedf.md). Please ensure you're familiar with both before proceeding.
+
+**Predictoor DF makes Volume DF more attractive than status quo**, because the volume-based bounds on weekly rewards trends tend to be qualitatively higher for prediction feeds. (The Appendix has details.)
+
+Ocean assets with high DCV are easy to identify: it's the 20 OPF-published prediction feeds. This makes the choice of veOCEAN allocation easy: point to those 20 assets. (Only OPF-published feeds are eligible.)
+
+**Doing Volume DF gives Passive DF rewards too**, of course.
+
+The net result: Predictoor DF means earnings potential from Predictoor DF, Volume DF, and Passive DF.
+
+## Appendix: On DCV Bounds of Prediction Feeds
+
+Predictoor DF makes Volume DF more attractive than status quo. Active DF's rewards are bounded by `DCV_bound` which in turn is bound by sales volume and fees. In Predictoor DF, both those factors are raised, which raises the bounding in Volume DF. Let's elaborate.
+
+At one time, Volume DF had a "wash consume" problem, where people published and consumed their own datasets. [DF9](https://blog.oceanprotocol.com/data-farming-df8-completed-df9-started-reward-function-tuned-d74b5134b5d1) onwards address this, by putting a bounds on weekly rewards:
+
+> `DCV_bound = DCV * m`
+
+Where `m` = `DCV_bounding_multiplier` = `Ocean community fee (0.1%) + publish market fee`
+
+This stopped wash consume 💪 because it became unprofitable to _do_ wash consume: fees eat up all potential profits.
+
+A low `DCV` (data consume volume) or a low `m` (publish market fee) mean low `DCV_bound`.
+
+Predictoor DF makes both `DCV` and `m` higher!
+
+- **`DCV` is higher:** the 37K OCEAN/week counts as consume volume
+- **`m` is higher:** publish market fee is 20% for prediction feeds
+
+Therefore `DCV_bound` is higher. Specifically: `DCV_bound = 37000 * (0.001 + 0.20) = 7437 OCEAN`. In other words, at least 7437 OCEAN is available for Volume DF in any given week.
+